Energy Salvation? Moore's Law Meets Solar Cells

Sunflowers and solar power.

Last week a regular reader of this blog watched the video I put up about Jack Nicholson's solar-separated hydrogen-powered car from 23 years ago, and wrote:

Cute, but producing H2 by means of photovoltaic technology is no answer to anything. It is far cheaper to cryo-separate H2 from natural gas than electrolysis by PV's. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion has potential, but building a plant off shore, to exploit the heat differential between surface and deep (2000m or deeper) water, on a large enough scale to be economical, is daunting.

My response:

Technology is a fluid thing, and while we do not yet have a Moore's Law for photovoltaics, wind, and batteries we are pretty close.

See this article where they note:

The cost of electricity from photovoltaic (PV) systems has dropped 15- to 20-fold; and grid-connected PV systems currently sell for about $5-$10 per peak Watt (20 to 50¢/kWh), including support structures, power conditioning, and land. They are highly reliable and last 20 years or longer.

Natural gas still leaves us with fraking, piping and a depleting natural resource, but solar and nukes do not. When combined with more efficient engines, better insulation and geo-sink cooling and heating systems, I think we (the U.S) may be able to move "off the grid" entirely in 20 years. Once we hit the tipping point for self-contained home electricity systems, things will move very fast dues to tax credits. But we shall see.

Earlier today I got an email from someone who wanted to explore a possible fraud case dealing with subsidies extended to wind power enterprises. I am always willing to listen, but as I noted, subsidies do not necessarily mean fraud; they may be a logical and smart national investment:

The question of whether wind power, solar power, or tidal and river turbines will be cost effective and will make a dent in the national energy supply is not a fixed equation.

We are entering a period, right now, where the theoretical efficiencies in these systems are doubling every six months, and the reason we are making so much progress is that subsidies are creating a market.

Is wind power an intelligent market right now? Probably not, but it may be in the future, and we are subsidizing a future that does not include oil, coal, or natural gas. See >> Wind Turbines Today Produce 300X the Power as Those Made 15 Years Ago

Tonight, an article in the Scientific American blog addressed the issue of whether solar cells had indeed met up with Moore's Law.

It turns out I was a pessimist!  The author notes that the cost per Kwh and the efficiency of solar cells are moving on log curves.  The result:

The cost of solar, in the average location in the U.S., will cross the current average retail electricity price of 12 cents per kilowatt hour in around 2020, or 9 years from now. In fact, given that retail electricity prices are currently rising by a few percent per year, prices will probably cross earlier, around 2018 for the country as a whole, and as early as 2015 for the sunniest parts of America.

10 years later, in 2030, solar electricity is likely to cost half what coal electricity does today. Solar capacity is being built out at an exponential pace already. When the prices become so much more favorable than those of alternate energy sources, that pace will only accelerate.

So I may be wrong -- things appear to be moving faster than I imagined, and not only in the solar arena, but also in the wind turbine arena as well.

I have been wrong before when it comes to energy, and last time it cost me $200 going in the other direction (I bet the price per Kwh would continue to go down). That bet also left me bested by Ted Danson who won the first Long Bet. Ah well, the money goes to charity, and I believe I may yet win the next one! We shall see.
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