I Was Right . . . Once

I just sent an email to one of my most conservative friends:

I am predicting a Ron Paul win in Iowa with Romney in #2 and Gingrich a close third (which will kill him going into NH).

My friend reminds me that right now it's all:

.. upsies downies. Just remember that Dewey beat Truman and that was the final election.

True!

That said, I looked back on my post to this blog at about this same point before the last Iowa caucus.

Back then Hillary Clinton was the "inevitable" Democrat candidate, and Rudy Giuliani was tops on the GOP side of the ticket.

Hillary, of course, was finally choked out of the race, and Giuliani crashed and burned in a fire ball, winning only one electoral vote.

And what I did I say?   I predicted.

I think if Obama can rip through the gossamer-thin film of "inevitability" surrounding Hillary Clinton, he will be President.  Giuliani is simply not presidential timber; he's too mercurial and too provincial (even more provincial than George W. Bush).

Which is not to say Barack OBama is going to have a cake walk. He's going to be Swift-boated by the folks at Fox and by the whispering campaigns of right-wing emailers who will pass on what they think are clever nigger jokes laced with suggestions that the Senator from Illinois is really a Muslim fanatic in drag.

There's only one problem with that attack plan: Barack Obama. The more you see of this guy, the more you realize how incredibly solid he is. As time goes on, more and more people are going to pay attention, and the folks making the sniping comments about race and name are going to look smaller and smaller until at last they both reveal and embarrass themselves at the same time.

As for Rudy Giuliani, he has the opposite problem; the more people see of him, the less impressed they are going to be.

So, do I think the current crop of GOP nominees can beat Obama?

No.  Not a chance unless they catch him in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. 

And not only do I think this is not going to happen, but I predict a third party candidate, Michael Bloomberg, will join the presidential race shortly after Iowa, and further wither Republican chances.

Don't get me wrong:  the GOP has fielded the finest collection of dwarves and midgets ever to suit up for the NBA, but if you want to play ball at the NATIONAL level, you have to do much better. Much, much better.

But, as my friend suggests, we shall see.

I could be wrong!  (But I doubt it).
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